The future of agriculture is at risk due to the effects of climate change. Scientists predict that by 2050, global demand for food will increase by 110%, while 40% of croplands and pastures are already under threat. Factors such as the rising average temperature on the planet, high concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and other environmental issues are contributing to this threat.
A research team from Skoltech and the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences utilized open data and artificial intelligence to analyze how agricultural land suitability may change in the next 25 years. They discovered that croplands are likely to increase in northern territories. The study, published in IEEE Access, involved three main stages: data collection and preprocessing, machine learning model training, and evaluation of results by predicting cropland distribution based on climate models and socioeconomic scenarios.
The researchers utilized open data sources such as ERA5 for climate analysis and CMIP models for predicting climate change. These data sets allowed them to analyze three climate change scenarios: a sustainable, low-emission future, a ‘business-as-usual’ trajectory, and a high fossil fuel dependency scenario. By integrating global food security analysis data at a 1 km resolution, the team was able to study irrigation conditions for arable land in detail.
Read More: The Future of Automotive Technology: Revolutionizing Car Architectures
The findings of the study suggest that by 2050, there will be an increase in arable land, but it will shift towards northern regions. This shift may require increased irrigation in some currently exploited agricultural areas, posing potential risks. The authors emphasize the importance of regional assessments for adapting to climate change and ensuring food security, aligning with recommendations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The future of agriculture is closely linked to our ability to adapt to the challenges posed by climate change. By utilizing artificial intelligence and open data sources, researchers can predict trends in agricultural land suitability and draw attention to developing strategies for the future. It is essential to consider various factors such as land type and soil erosion when making predictions about the future of agriculture. By focusing on detailed regional assessments, we can better prepare for the impacts of climate change on food supplies and ensure the sustainability of agriculture for generations to come.
Leave a Reply